First, the below is merely my opinion based on reading the press, and a bunch of years of experience. And the hair on the back of my neck is standing up Geopolitical wise.
Events in the Ukraine are very concerning, but so are the events going on in Taiwan.
Just google Russian build up boarders Ukraine and Chinese air incursions Taiwan..
My nightmare bad Christmas gift / new years gift is that the Russians invade Ukraine, at the same time that China does the same in Taiwan.
Western Christmas is a great time for this, as many of the policy makers are not going to be in the office. Yes people will be available, but this time of year is always a little short staffed.
While I am not saying that Russia and China are coordinating - not going full tom Clancy here...it would make lots of sense. Even if they are just watching for good opportunities.
So why Christmas. For the Russians Christmas is not until Jan 7th 2022, which would leave plenty of time for a quick invasion.
And the Chinese new year is not until February.
Oh and on a political front the Germans have a brand new leader for the first time in a nearly 20 years.. and he is still finding his footing and with a duck tape and rubber band coalition.
For the Chinese, why? Well its a matter of COCOM...simply put the U.S Military is organized on Geographic areas - for the most part. And these COCOM's (little secret here) spend about as much organizational effort fighting for resources as they do on actual problem sets.
So if Russia goes heavy into Ukraine, EUCOM will be screaming for resources. ISR being the big one. Carriers and Tomahawk cruise missiles a close second. And the Russians are not known for being delicate.
While the organizational supertanker is turning to change course, what if China went heavy into Taiwan. It would cause a tough choice.
From the Navy point of view...where do the carriers go?
Also, don't forget, in both situations there is a heavy Navy component.
After all, do you think the Russians or Chinese are just going to let us sail where we want.
In the European area, the Russians will likely exercise some flexible deterrent options to make life difficult...just imagine them saying, hey Europe its cold out. That gas you want to stay warm..you only get it if you deny the U.S rights to use basing and transit. Or perhaps...all the way to if you let them use your bases, sorry about that cyber attack or stray land attack cruise missile on your key infrastructure..
Simply put, it is doubtful we have enough resources to address both crisis's at once.
On an operational level the choice would be what goes where, and how long it takes to get there. And remember in the case of Ukraine - not a NATO member. The collective European response is likely to be Meh.
On a strategic level, unless we have lots of rabbits and hats, we would have to make a choice.
That result of that choice means it is likely that one of our allies looses.
Which is a win for either the other side. Effectively sending a message to the rest of the world that the United States is an unreliable partner.
Lemon and salt in the wound post Afghanistan
So even if somehow we have lots of rabbits and hats, either Russia or China or both would get a strategic win.
Now lets add to the clear fact that both parties in the United States have little to no desire to send American to fight and die on Taiwan or Ukraine land.
With one prime time political commentator basically saying let the Russians do what they want..we should be partnering with them.
There is a real question as to if we would even be able to generate a sufficient response to either event in time to even matter.
So lets see here, If I had to imagine the worst case scenario - and just spit balling here.
The Russians go heavy sometime around 18/20 December. They go hard and fast.
For those whom go whom would be crazy enough to do it in the winter in Ukraine - well its actually the best time. No mud. Its kind of like how they normally operate...
Napoleon and Hitler, were not equipped for the winter. in the later case he forbid his forces from being equipped with winter stuff as it would imply a long term fight vice a quick win..And both were delayed by mud. So when winter hit, neither they nor their equipment was ready for it...
...But if your equipment is designed to fight in that cold environment (and you think Russian equipment is not then you have another thing coming) its not really a problem. Spring and fall are mud season. Also you don't put as many forces forward unless you intend to use them. Its sort of like loading a cannon. Its easier to fire then it is to unload.
For the Chinese. I would say they watch the U.S response. If it goes badly for the Russians. Well not harm no foul.
If it is going badly for the U.S and allies, well maybe I take advantage.
And that they go hard and heavy sometime 1st second week in January with a 30 day offensive. Timed to end on o about Chinese New Year in Feb. Again, not a weather guru, but cyclone season has passed, and the weather in January is not that bad. I would have to check some oceanographic sites but it is probably not a bad time to go if you needed to.
Again, so response wise. The United States would be faced with a tough choice.
Politically, the incumbent president is not popular.
And we already have shipping issues, gas price issues.
Just imagine what would happen if a mini world war 3 broke out.
My guess is the Chinese will say hey, that pain your feeling now...how about we turn the spigot entirely off...
Hope my hypothetical doesn't happen but it it does called it here.
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