Following news out of Lithuania. For those not following, Lithuania just decided to enforce export/import restrictions on Kaliningrad. This has the real potential for escalation.
For those whom don't know Kaliningrad is essentially a war prize from WWII. It had belonged to the Germans. And essentially - and this is very simplistic, The Soviets took it as a spoil of war.
From WWII until the fall of the Soviet Union it was important to the Soviet government, but realize that the Soviet Union defacto controlled pretty much the entire Eastern Baltic.
However, it became much more important to the Russian federation when they lost defacto control of the former East Germany, Poland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Kaliningrad essentially became an island geographically separate from the Russian Federation.
It is also important as it is the location of the headquarters of the Baltic Fleet. Additionally, it allows the Russian Navy a location which is less easily isolated then say St Petersburg.
Traditionally, most supplies necessary to sustain the Russian footprint in Kaliningrad have come by Rail.
The Moscow-Kaliningrad Train (rferl.org)
The alternative is either by Air (very expensive) or by Sea (slow).
Keeping the rail line open is very high on the strategic priorities for the Russian Federation. In fact some believe that if this route was ever to be shut, that it might be a cause for the Russian Federation to decide to make a land incursion to establish a Russian controlled corridor to link up Russia and Kaliningrad.
In fact keeping that railway open has been a publicly broadcast "red line". One that if crossed, would likely result in armed conflict. Conflict so that Russia could re-open that railway.
And this is not a big secret. Which makes the decision by Lithuania to impose EU sanctions and curtail (that's a nice term) shipments from Russia to Kaliningrad interesting. Interesting as in perhaps dangerous.
Why? Well, Lithuania is part of the EU - but also part of NATO. That means that if Lithuania was invaded by the Russian Federation, then Lithuania could invoke Article 5
NATO - Topic: Collective defence - Article 5
The tricky part is that Article 5 requires a response when invoked by a NATO member, but not necessarily and armed response
Which makes me wonder why Lithuania chose this exact time to "enforce" sanctions.
bne IntelliNews - Lithuania braces for Russian retaliation over Kaliningrad sanctions
Kaliningrad row: Lithuania accuses Russia of lying about rail 'blockade' - BBC News
EXPLAINER: Why Russia-Lithuania tensions are rising | AP News
Why is Lithuania risking Russia’s wrath over Kaliningrad? (yahoo.com)
Thus far most of "the west" has been clearly content with supplying Ukraine when weapons and material in an proxy war against Russia in eastern Ukraine.
Which has had the effect so far of tamping down on Putin's dreams and aspirations. And a huge amount of material losses as well as manpower for the Russian armed services.
But what happens if Russia decides to enforce very publicly broadcast "Red lines" regarding lines of communication with Kaliningrad?
That brings a real possibility of direct conflict with NATO, and perhaps a splintering of the western unity regarding confronting Russia.
Or perhaps Lithuania has judged that Russia is too weak to mount an incursion given the situation in Ukraine, and decided to act now.
And likely Russia is playing up any restrictions that Lithuania has made to make this seem a lot worse than it really is..
As Russia has long resented having to get permission to access Kaliningrad from the now independent Baltic States
One thing history teaches us is Russia is seldom down and out for long.
Simply put this is a very dangerous game...
Beware the Nested Games of Russia’s War Against Ukraine | Asharq AL-awsat (aawsat.com)
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