This is my opinion. perhaps misguided but here goes.
Underline updated 1/26/
Russia is going to manage the perhaps upcoming conflict with the west by Exploiting our national security architecture and the seams that you could drive a truck through. So what would I do if I was in the Russian driver seat.
But first they have to generate a plausible, sellable reason for the Russian domestic audience to consume. And a plausible reason for propogandists to echo chamber and sell on the internet and even some U.S prime time talk tv channels.
So what is that going to be. Well if you are able to keep the maskrova and false flag ops from inside Ukraine from happening, what is left on the table is repeating a falsehood over and over until its seems legitimate.
In this case the refusal of NATO and the U.S to shut the door to NATO expansion. And talks between the U.S and Russia - without the Ukrainians being at the table. Which is a very very bad optic.
Last time we did that we essentially destabilized Afghanistan, as their own people saw the U.S negotiating without their own nations leadership there.
So the U.S has now given its response. Which I am sure Russian propaganda will begin to amplify in social media. As well as media personalities in the United States whom seem for some reason to have an affinity for Putin and company. And those whom also strongly believe the United States should pursue essentially Isolationist policies. To the first group, I think they are getting something. The second group seems to have legitimate (although in my opinion misplaced) core beliefs that I will none the less respect.
"WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. has made no concessions to the main Russian demands over Ukraine and NATO in a long-awaited written response delivered to Russia on Wednesday in Moscow, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said."
....
Blinken said the U.S. response, delivered to the Russian Foreign Ministry by U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan, gave up no ground on “core principles” such as NATO’s open-door membership policy and the alliance’s military presence in Eastern Europe
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“If the West continues its aggressive course, Moscow will take the necessary retaliatory measures,” Lavrov said.
But he indicated Russia wouldn’t wait forever. “We won’t allow our proposals to be drowned in endless discussions,” he said
1. Undermine the unity of any possible NATO response in Europe. Now, well now that it is pretty chilly out. Gas is a great weapon. Simply put make the implied threat to turn the spigots down or off. And make it clear that any support for a response to an intervention will have a literal chilling effect.
Well they have done that, as NATO can not seem to mount a singular response - good luck with that most days. Further, realize that even if Ukraine was a member of NATO or a NATO country was attacked by Russia. Article 5 does not require countries have an armed response. Just a response.
The EU. is currently also - lets just say out of sorts. The largest economy -Germany - has essentially decided to sit this one out. Content to send Helmets to Ukraine - and a mere 5000 at that.
Saw a great quote on twitter for Russia Television - Germany. I read such outlets to get an idea of what the Russians are selling informationally.
"Der Februar wird kalt und heiß
zugleich, aber nicht ruhig"
https://de.rt.com/meinung/130439-februar-wird-kalt-und-heiss/
The rough translation being that feburary will be cold and warm at the same time, but not peaceful.
Which is a subtle or not so subtle way to inform German readers what could happen if Germany moves to the pro Ukraine camp. Warm in ukraine with explosions and war, and cold in your house as there is not gas to heat it or generate electricity to heat it as the Russians have turned off the spigots to save possibility of damage to pipelines - unless you turn on the North Stream :)
2. Be everywhere and nowhere. Especially at sea. I have posted this using publicly available information, but when you see a Russian corvette or larger, draw about an 800 mile circle around it. As those ships carry the Kaliber class missile which has a land attack variant that supposedly has around that range.
The Russian exercise's of the coast of Ireland most likely have a bunch of ships capable
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10434583/EU-set-unity-Russia-invasion-fears-mount.html
Then you have what I will term the med squadron. Also likely capable
If you go here there is a pretty good OSINT breakdown.
https://russianfleetanalysis.blogspot.com/
Which right now has ships to the west of England, positioned to make any Eastbound transit of reinforcing forces hard. Lots of ships in the med to the south and more in the Black sea.
** something I saw on Twitter that proposes a decent reason why the Russians decided to do their navy drills South West of Ireland***
https://twitter.com/MacSDavid/status/1484882882808233986/photo/1
Reminds me that not all Cyber is non Kinetic and Kinetic effects at the right place can be the same as a devastating zero day cyber event
In my opinion we would be hard pressed to locate track and isolate all these groups effectively.
As they are not really concentrated.
3. Make trouble elsewhere. Send a message that perhaps its wise to stay out of any coming conflict
The message sent here is hey Israel you might want to consider sitting this one out.
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/russia-china-hold-naval-drills-in-arabian-sea-report
4. Spread your forces globally and create ambiguity regarding intentions
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/russia-china-hold-naval-drills-in-arabian-sea-report
https://www.timesofisrael.com/china-russia-and-iran-to-launch-joint-naval-drill-on-friday/
5. Then there is the whole "gap" in the U.S National Security Architecture - again mentioned in earlier posts. Exploit it.
Boils down to this. The U.S National Security architecture is designed around artificial global areas. Europe, Middle East, Pacific ect. Each of these areas has a Headquarters whom has its own culture and staff process and command and control procedures that are not exactly interoperable. And each of these compete with each other for resources. Long gone are the days that a war was run out of the pentagon with centralized planning.
So why is that a problem. Simple. If the other side(s) decide to spread the defense, we make it easier. As we have these things called geographical Combatant Commanders who are all trying to deal with issues in their respective back yards.
And the force allocation sometimes boils down to whom makes the best staff argument on whom gets what.
So if things happen in all the areas at the same time its a perfect storm.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-drills-navy-iran-china-blinken-1671470
Thought I would add to this post with something I saw on Twitter this morning
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