Phoney war redux 2022 - are the Russians going to come?

 Well, looks like my 96 hour estimate has come and gone. 

So I am not going to venture forth any guesses on timeframe when events in Ukraine or the surrounding area will or not kick off. 

However, in general I think the situation is much like a bowman how has loaded and arrow and started to draw the string. I'm not sure how long that bowman can stand with a drawn bow before letting loose the arrow.  

It reminds me, historically of the phoney war in WWII. A situation that everyone knew - or was pretty sure would explode - but simmered for about 8 months or so until it exploded. 

I am sure there are plenty of much smarter people with better and classified information streams that are drinking lots of coffee and red bull pouring over estimates and reading tea leaves as best they can 

Now, don't tell the Ukrainians that things are not already hot on their eastern border. Its a daily low / high intensity conflict in a localized area. 

There is also much room for a strategic private, or maybe lower grade officer to make a mistake or take to much initiative. In short its is getting dangerous out there.

The west in general has, in my opinion, few options to resolve this quickly. While there has been mention of imposing crushing sanctions on Russia, those sanctions won't have any immediate effect. So even if that arrow is let go, it is going to take some time for it to reach its intended target. 

That leaves essentially military force / deterrence across all spectrums. Which in reading the global news seems like is being pursued.  The problem is a time space issue.

The U.S and its allies have to get there from here. That means either via Air or Land (Sea is pretty much out of the question)  and over or through Germany (more on that later). I rule out the Sea option as essentially you have either the Baltic (pretty much a denied environment on a good day) the Black Sea (ditto plus getting through the Dardanelles with treaty restrictions) or maybe someplace in Southern Europe and then overland. But maybe I am missing an option.

Perhaps if only to increase the costs to the Russians in any invasion. 

But the situation is not pretty. Especially politically. Angela is gone, and here replacement in Germany is much less on solid footing. 

And it looks like Germany has essentially foreclosed on any direct support militarily to Ukraine. Actually more than that Germany has prohibited Baltic states that use its weaponry from transferring any of those to Ukraine. 

The million dollar question is as to if Germany will allow U.S and other more supportive allies to transverse Germany and use it basing. They key part of that being the Atlantic ports. 

To go a bit cold war here, The U.S and NATO spent multiple billions with a B to design infrastructure to support transfer large amounts of war material into German. As in re-engineering bridges to support our main battle tanks. Not so much in eastern Europe, and the infrastructure built back then may not be in place. It might not be possible to easily get main battle tanks and other heavy equipment even into Poland. 

Notice that I mentioned surrounding area. Our good friend Putin has made it clear that he views restoration of the geopolitical security situation the Soviet Union had as his priority. Remember, this means not just Ukraine, but the Baltics as well. 

He could just as easily decide to turn north and go after the Baltic states as well as Ukraine. 

So where does that leave Ukraine, and what would I do if I was a decision maker advising the West and Ukraine.

Well, first construct a good speed bump. That speed bump should only be designed to slow down any Soviet advance. Second disperse forces into small but potent groups that do not require positive command and control. Third, insurgency. But this time cause it not fight it. 

Provide enough deadly portable weapons to the dispersed Ukraine forces to make it really painful for Russia. Expect that most large scale Ukrainian formations will be toast within 72 hours. 

Essentially distributed lethality ashore. Take the composite warfare commander concept from the U.S Navy and implement it with whatever forces Ukraine an allies can muster. Have a set of preplanned responses, rally points and stores. 

Assume your Command and Control will fall apart, 

Don't make your forces a target, make the Russians focus everywhere. That's at the tactical level in the Ukraine area of operations. 

At the operational level assume pretty much from the East Coast of the United States to the Suez canal and to the Russian border is your area of operations. If this goes high and right it will not in my opinion be contained to Ukraine. It will span the area mentioned above.

It as mentioned in earlier posts may spread to other areas. Especially in Asia. No telling what the Chinese might do if we suddenly start moving ISR and other assets to support Ukraine and that area of operations. Ditto for the Russians

In fact based on the the re-organization of the Russian military in the past 20 years we should expect problems in Asia from the Russians. 

The Chinese, may depending on their own calculus utilize the situation to advance their own goals (think Taiwan) independent of the Russians, with tacit interoperability.

The nightmare of having to deal with two low/high intensity conflicts a world apart will likely strain  Western resources on a good day. 

And if that nightmare does happen, the post mortem on the events that transpired will likely cause some serious reflection on the organization and structure of the United States Military and it allies.

I can only hope the Russian take the arrow out of the bow, stand down and claim victory. Perhaps there is some way we can give them a way to save face.