Another update here. Looks like some of the Russians may have got caught with their hands in at least one cookie jar
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html
for those that don't know Russian history, this is an especially favored method. Goes back at leas to the 1700's when the Russian empire was expanding. One of the tricks was to take a group of Russians whom looked spoke and acted like the lets say X country people, and insert them into X's territory and then actually attack real Russians from X territory. This would then give the Russians pretext to respond.
The really sneaky part is that the real Russians being attacked were often unaware that the fake Russian attackers attacking them were actually Russian and pulled no punches.
With the great side benefit that sometimes the Russians pretending to be from country X got killed and hence plausible deniability.
Another great trick was for fake Russians pretending to be from country X attack real Russians inflicting great casualties. Then - and this works best when not all the people from X know each other real well - use the attack to bolster credibility with X. The natural progression being leading real people from country X into a nice big trap where the leaders of any resistance from country X are captured.
Actually wrote about the above example many moons ago in college. And this was in the days before electronic warfare, catfishing and any other modern means to update the old trick to be much more believable and dangerous.
So to conclude, looks like the Russians are already looking to establish pretext, and some of them got caught.
However, in this case, catching on Russian false flag or Maskirovka, is like catching one roach in your kitchen,, there are always more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_deception
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- quick update here on 1/14/2022...again not to push things further to the right but Al Jazeera is reporting the Russian FM has given a next week deadline for NATO and the US to cave to demands..
Now has a country ever invaded before a deadline? Never happens right? But, again in my opinion the number of forces that Russia has ready to go (something like 100,000 on the border with another 75,000 in quick reserve) is probably not sustainable for a very long time.
Its analogous in my opinion to pulling a loaded weapon out, training it at a target, and holding it level. The first 10 or so seconds are that bad, but after a minute or two our arm starts shaking and you have to decide if your going to holster it or fire and holster it.
Remember while the places these troops are currently deployed to are likely improved areas. They are not garrison. Which means its not a lot of fun to be a Russian Soldier right now.
Are they equipped and trained for this environment. yes. But after a while things are going to start breaking. Men and material and the logistics, as well as morale and health (yes I know Russians may have a slightly different take in the later then western forces) become more challenging.
So they are going to either have to pull the trigger, or put it back in the holster. Pretty soon.
Russia demands US, NATO response next week on Ukraine
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Moscow has ‘run out of patience’ after diplomatic talks fail to produce a breakthrough."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/14/russia-demands-us-nato-response-next-week-on-ukraine
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1/13/2022
So looks like I may have a little crow to eat. I had predicted that the Russians would go around western Christmas / New years - and well that didn't happen.
Do I think it may still happen - yes.
However much like the magic 8 ball.
I think that other issues may have delayed Russian plans - mainly the issues in a really sunny tourist destination called Kazakhstan. One of the must see places if you head there is the Darvaza gas created also affectionately known as either the Door to Hell or Gates of hell courtesy of a failed drilling operation by the soviets back in the 70's. The soviets hit a major gas field and the resultant gas leak was so bad they thought - lets just set it on fire. What could go wrong. Well it has been burning since.
But I digress. In any case. The locals got restless in Kazakhstan on January 2nd 2022. (https://www.project-syndicate.org/bigpicture/why-kazakhstan-matters) And basically the the president , Nursultan Nazarbayev ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nursultan_Nazarbayev ) cried uncle, and called on the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_Security_Treaty_Organization -
And by CTSO I really mean good old Vladimir Putin
And when yo are uncle Vlad you have to answer or you loose credibility
So In pretty good Russian form, the Russian essentially dispatched these guys - whom by no means are peacekeepers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Guards_Spetsnaz_Brigade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/98th_Guards_Airborne_Division
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/31st_Guards_Air_Assault_Brigade
to sweep up...
Now a couple things. The fact that these units could deploy so quickly means they were pretty much primed to go.
Now I think that they were more primed to go west onto Ukraine then to the east and they are in a hurry to get home. News reports have them departing essentially today 13 Jan 2022
What the hurry?
Well my guess is that the unplanned diversion will prove to be a warm up
So lets look at a very rough time line
-October – early November -Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 UAV against the Russian backed rebels
-2–3 November, the head of the CIA, William Burns, came to Moscow and met with senior Russian intelligence officials there
-13 November Russia has again amassed 100,000 troops in the border area
-On 1 December, Russia accused Ukraine of deploying half its army – about 125,000 troops – in Donbas to confront pro-Russian separatist
-On 9 December, Russia accused Ukraine of moving heavy artillery towards the front line where separatists are fighting with Ukrainian forces
-On 31 December 2021, after a phone call between US President Biden and Russian president Putin,
"Putin declared that if the US sanctioned them it would be "a fatal mistake."
So I'm guessing two things happened. One the phone call, and two the situation in Kazakhstan gave Putin a good excuse to pull back and schedule talks
Dates of those talks?
10-13 December and they did not end well
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/russia-ukraine-talks-dead-end-poland-warns-risk-war
So I don't think we are out of the woods.
Contrary.
Not to sound like a cult leader whom keeps pushing the date of Armageddon to the right but I am guessing the next week will be a go no go for Putin
Why, Well, a 100,000 (and I'm guessing the actual number is a lot higher) strong army is a lot of capability to have out at the pointy edge of the stick away from home garrison.
For context imagine if the US suddenly deployed 100,000 soldiers to any border anywhere. The chances of us just packing up and going home without doing something are slim to none.
So lets do the old War College most dangerous most likely
Most dangerous Russia invades the Ukraine in the next 96 hours hoping for a quick win. Using specialized urban warfare units whom have gained practice in Russia's recent hot conflicts. Going against Ukrainians whom, while on home turf are going to have a rough go.
Most likely. Well an alternate scenario is that Putin blinks and, but still wants to use his toys and send a message and basically sends the Russian troops into the Donetsk - and maybe a little further but not to be a downer, I think the most likely is tied with the most dangerous.
So while I may be eating Crow some more in the next 96 hours. I am in fact hoping I do so.
So now I have presented the strategic problem. What to do about it.
Well, we really only have - I think two elements we can use Diplomatic and Economic. I would say informational but US info ops are C squad / Junior varsity as we have to play by the rules.
If you include Cyber as informational...well maybe. I'm not versed in capabilities. But generally Cyber stuff is either really really hard or to soft to be noticed. Again other smart people may say otherwise
And Military is kind of out of the question to defuse, as we play right into the Russian hands.
On the Diplomatic front, I'm hoping we have some good leverage points and that the State Department has a few grey beards (male/ female / other - don't care) still left whom know how to deal with the issue and Russians.
Economic stuff probably won't work well unless we start seizing bank accounts and playing real hardball
So what happens if as they say this goes kinetic? Well, not really alot of good options. Short of really hard kinetic options.
As unless the Russians really piss off turkey, I don't see a lot of ships in the Black sea or conducting strikes from Turkey. The Baltic, while more open to warships all of flavors is essentially covered from entrance to ST Pete (and I don't mean Florida) by defense in depth Russian style.
So that leaves entering or supporting through Poland...but the problem is going to be getting to Poland.
Well enough Ruminating for the evening is stream of consciousness means
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