Unmanned goes to Sea - again

So was checking traps and lines this morning and ran across these pictures on twitter

So I think Mr Suttonhttps://twitter.com/CovertShores  is probably one of the better authorities on this. But because I can I'm going to add my two cents.

First the unconfirmed backstory. Well unconfirmed as when your dealing with Russians or the Ukrainians you can never tell what might be an information operation. 

But based on the information available it appears that this Unmanned Surface Vehicle turned up close to the Russian naval base as Sevastopol. And it appears it was not invited and not expected. So probably not Russian. Also, it appears that the Russians decided to tow it out to sea and "explode" it. Which means they probably were of the opinion it was a bit of a threat. 

So, to begin with this is a well-constructed craft. 

It looks like this was done by a shipwright or someone who has been around boats and vessels for a while. 

In short it looks pretty professional when you compare it to other low-profile vessels and unmanned surface craft built by other groups such as the Tamil Tigers, Huthi's and some of the Columbian Narco Subs. 

No, whomever constructed this has access to machine shops, welders, marine engineers ect. Not a mom and pop shop or uncle in the backyard. Or a really really good mom and pop or unce.

Thats not surprising in itself as Ukraine is a seagoing nation and has many shipyards. So this is by no means beyond their capacity

Next lets talk about what I think are the major design features of this craft 

It looks like they took about a 20 foot aluminum or steel small outboard boat. They then cut out everything but the hull and stripped it to the bones 

Next they configured a cradle to sit in the boat to accommodate the warhead from some type of missile.

After that they fitted what looks like jet ski engines to the stern. As well as gas tanks and batteries to balance out the weight of the warhead which is located in the stern.

Then they installed the Communications system. I think this likely is some type of SATCOM antenna, maybe a combination UHF for LOS. This appears to be located in the stern area. 

Then they mounted the Warhead into the internal cradle. Then they installed the warhead. Almost certainly in a safe mode. Welded everything back together. The three external semi circles are likely bracing to hold the boat together and keep the warhead in place. They may also have the effect of increasing shrapnel when and if this had gone off.  They did leave an access port on the bow. This is likely where they armed it,

Next they drilled a small hole amidships and placed the Electro optical / Infared gps integrated device to enable a remote operator to "see" any possible target and likely take final arming instructions

I am guessing that the one thing that they forgot to do was to install an inertial navigation system INS. And instead relied on GPS enabled navigation. With perhaps manual operator steering. Why would an INS or something similar be important? Well in the event you can't get a gps signal or use SATCOM the INS would enable the craft to stay fairly on course. Why is that important. Well the Russians are (perhaps used to be) pretty good a jamming things. So counting on GPS or SATCOM would be questionable - especially when near a Russian Navy port. But with INS you could stay on course -ish. At least until you could get another fix. Realize these systems are not cheap. And the Ukrainians may have opted for positive control at all times to avoid damaging friendly or civilian ships. So it may have been an intentional omission. 

Then they took that harness and hooked it up to the battery and comms package via the access port on the starboard side. 

So how fast could this thing go...well rough estimate would be probably between 20 and 30 knots in a calm sea. However, I am guessing that actual transit speed might be 5-15 knots. Likely on the slower end. Remember, this craft is low profile for a reason. Stealth. At 20 to 20 knots, you are likely leaving a very very detectable wake even at night.

Remember the stealth aspect is a big part of the design of this craft. Many of you may never have stood watch at zero dark 30 on a ship. But even in perfect weather with no wind or waves and max illumination, this craft might look like a dolphin, piece of wood or some other marine animal.

Also, due to its low profile your Radar is not going to much good. Also EO/IR may not be all that great depending on how much insulation was used around the engine. Which appears to be a jet ski engine that does not run as hot as others. 

I would guess that even with a super alert watch whom has been caffeinated and full of nicotine, its going to be hard to see this. 

And remember the target appears to be ships in homeport. Tied up to the pier. Probably not going to have a bunch of people staring at the water.  Well perhaps now... 

For the warhead, guessing a missile warhead, maybe 100-150 pounds. Anymore and the boat won't handle it. I say warhead, as it is probably much easier to jury rig a warhead then to go and create your own explosive package and really improvise it. Safer probably to.  If I had my choice would choose and Anti Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) Warhead as well its engineer

So here is my vignette on how this was employed after probably some basic trials.

Following completion of basic sea trials and testing this craft was delivered to some section of the Ukrainian Navy. Once judged combat ready the Ukrainian Naval Staff developed targets that would be suitable for this craft. High on this list was likely Russian Navy ships in the port of Sevastopol. A successful attack would put more stress on an already nervous Russian Navy following attacks on Airbases and the HQ in previous weeks. An unsuccessful but detected craft would do the same minus the damage.

When the timing was right (Wind Weather targeting) a mothership/boat likely towed the craft some ways out to sea in the direction of the attack. This probably happened at dusk or night. Final preparations were made, checks undertaken, comms established, and initial arming of the warhead undertaken. When everything was green or mostly, so the Ukrainians activated the quick disconnect and let the craft head in its planed direction likely at a fairly slow rate of speed - say 5-15 knots. 

From there it proceeded to target...until it didn't a number of things could have happened. My guess is a loss of comms, Perhaps the linkage between SATCOM / GPS and the control boards failed. Engine failure, battery failure...or just running out of gas due to unexpected sea state.

So it would appear that this was a failure. But not really. 

Now there is an additional capability that the Russians have to guard against. And guarding against this capability is going to be difficult. 

The Russians will have to either increases resources towards guarding naval assets in port, put them to sea or move them. 

All upset the operational and tactical plans that the Russians might have.

Finally, you can bet somewhere there are a bunch of Staff officers and Engineers in the Ukrainian Navy pouring over whatever data they have. Developing solutions to issues and preparing to try again, 

A bright flash or a one way trip to the woodshed

A little over 6 months ago I was asked what I thought the outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be if an invasion happened. 

My thoughts at the time were that if the Russians were able to run over Ukraine quickly the outcome might be temporally good for Russia, but that long term the outlook was not so good. 

Why, well Ukraine of 2022 is not the Ukraine of the 2010's. In particular their military is much more westernized but with all the sneakiness of Russian strategic thought. 

In short, Ukraine military has a little bit of the best of both schools. In my mind's eye, even if the Russians had had a three-day success, they would have faced a situation similar but much worse than what U.S forces faced in Iraq. 

Counter insurgency, but with a population determined to fight back and whom had not been under sanctions and led by a dictator.

That led me to what happens when the Russians face a CI slog. I had honestly not considered that the war would remain, with some interesting exceptions a conventional war for over 200 days. 

In short, my assumptions were wrong in terms of how the nature of the conflict would flesh out.

However, I never thought that the Russian Army with the limited number of forces it chose to employ would be successful. 

Which led me to think what happens when things start going sideways for the Russians.

In talking to a co-worker I simplified it to a bumper sticker. Which I generally refrain from as it tries to make very complex situations simple. But here it is.

"This ends in a bright flash of light or Putin and co taking a one way trip to the woodshed or sanatorium"

Let me unpack the above statement with caveats ect. Putin maintains his control of the Russian government by allowing the Oligarchs and members of the Government, Military and Security services to grift and steal. 

A certain amount is ok, more and it's not ok. He also has on payroll huge portions of the Russian population, who essentially earn their paychecks either directly from the Russian Federation or from those employed by the Russian Federation. And going against the party line is not encouraged. It means jail at the low level - and Russian jails are not nice places or death by poison or other mysterious way at the high level.

Russia's huge resource wealth funds this. And not just oil. So that is one part. And the oligarchs don't mind this arrangement as it keeps them wealthy. The government employees don't mind as it keeps the paycheck coming and gives them some status

So, what about the "regular" Russians. 

In my opinion there are really not that many regular Russians. Pretty much most Russians are tied to the above income streams somehow. Maybe by 2 or 3 degrees of separation. And they for the most part get by. 

Russians in general have been fed a steady stream of misinformation. 

Which they don't really seem to mind, as long as it does not impact the paycheck. 

And whatever Putin does makes Russia Great Again or close to great again or perceived as almost great again

The Russian Military doesn't really care much either as long as they have their status, grift and paycheck. Remember it's a conscript army at the low levels. Majors and above with a few NCO's are the professionals. Below that its conscripts whom are generally from poor areas whom could not get out of being conscripted (think Northerners avoiding draft in the U.S Civil War or university deferments in Vietnam). To steal a PC term I rather despise, the average Russian Soldier has no agency. In short no one cares about him.  Literally meat for the grinder and replaceable. No so for the Majors and above. 

Here is the problem.

 It boils down to resource flows into Russia, degraded oil outflows, legitimacy loss and prestige loss

Senator John McCain once said Russia is not a country it's a gas station with nuclear weapons - or something to that effect. 

I think he was partially incorrect. More correctly Russia is an amalgamation of oils derrick's with nuclear weapons. 

What's the difference between those. An oil derrick does not have storage, a Gas station does. 

Simply put, Russia must pump its oil as it has very little storage. This means when people stop buying oil there is no place to put it. Except on ships. And there are not enough of those afloat to handle Russian export volumes. And it will take years, billions of dollars and external expertise to built pipelines to the east vice west. 

Further, the oil industry is very capital and tech intensive. 

Like airplanes, replacement parts and knowledge are needed to keep it operational. 

Access to both has been largely cut off or has dwindled. This means because of the decisions of Putin the resource wealth that funds many Russians is slowly being cut off. 

So, the difficulties that the Russian Army has been having have been so far easy to paper over. 

Remember, no one cries much over the death of a Russian Conscript from the poor far easter provinces. This is not by accident it is by design. You don't see many troops from Moscow or the Cities in Ukraine. Ever wonder why?

Maybe his mother and family, but even then, the death benefit paid softens that blow. And its a good bit of money for a poor family in Siberia. 

That along with the knowledge the soldier died " protecting mother Russia and ethnic Russians against Fascism " THIS IS FALSE...but unfortunately what many Russian have been force fed. 

That appears to be not the case anymore. Bits and pieces of the reality of the Russian situation in Ukraine are reaching the Russian population. In some ways it reminds me of the Iraqi minister of foreign affairs 

In essence the prestige and legitimacy of one the major institutions in Russia - the Armed services - has been or will be severely damaged. by what is happening in Ukraine. That bell will be very hard to un ring. 

I could argue the failure - so far - of the Russian military was not so bad. Until about a week ago. When the Russians got snookered and hit hard. Well planned by the Ukrainians by the way. Fun to see Maskrova used against the Russians!

The full-on retreat right now makes things very very dangerous.  

Why? The Russian military and security services are essentially the guarantor of the Russian regime. They are the savior of mother Russia going back to Napoleonic times. 

Feared but respected. It is a key block of the Russian regime. Its failure is not an option. 

If the Russian Army is totally defeated there might be a temptation by either Putin or his advisors to do something really stupid to salvage its position. 

"That is the this will end in a bright flash". The flash being a tactical nuclear weapon going off somewhere in Ukraine - probably the east. 

To send a very stern and convincing message that games stop now. 

You have had your fun Ukraine, but nothing further. 

While doing this would further make Russia a pariah. 

From the Putin and regime point of view it is probably a better option that not being in control. 

And it would send a firm message that the Russian Army is to be feared and respected.

"Or a Putin and co taking a one way trip to the woodshed or sanatorium" In this situation, the oligarchs and others senior in power essentially decide to execute a coup de tat on Putin and his close associates. 

Or perhaps Putin is sent to hospital while his inner circle and security officials mysteriously disappear, fall out of windows, are put on trial or killed

So, I think that Ukraine and the west should be careful how hard of a corner that Russia is pushed into. 

This is not to say I do not enjoy reading of Russian retreats and Russia becoming the largest arms exporter to Ukraine. 

Just to be careful when cornering a rabid animal with sharp claws.

It would be wise in short to have an exit strategy. 

Because I do not believe that anyone wants to see a bright flash of the easter horizon of Ukraine.

I also do not think that the Putin and his regime can survive as currently structured. 

The disinformation cap that the Russian government has had on Russia appears to be failing. 

Even on state supported channels. 

While it is likely that the true losses are being concealed it is impossible to conceal them all. Especially as Generals and Colonels have been dying and being captured. 

When the band aid of disinformation is ripped off, its is going to shock many Russians.

Full disclosure here I happen to have at one time been married into a ethnic Russian family. Divorced thankfully :) It's a bit interesting observing their behavior. As for most of the time I have known them (last 20 years) they identified as Russians from Ukraine. It has been interesting to see a change to Ukrainians who speak Russian since about February. 

They are shocked, shocked that the Russian people have allowed this attack on Ukraine to continue. 

Its then I remind them that Russians don't really have a choice. Because they have implicitly handed the keys of Russia to Putin for better or worse. In return for prosperity, security, and respect. 

And that I am not shocked by the Russian behavior at all. After all I had to deal with it during my divorce

What will happen when those people find out that devil's bargain is not being honored. 

And how fearful the Russian regime is of that fact being revealed. 

More importantly if there are enough well placed Oligarchs, security services and Military to remove Putin and his circle from the equation take the L in Ukraine and begin to mend things. 

Well that will determine if :

"This ends in a bright flash of light or Putin taking a one way trip the woodshed or sanatorium"