So I think Mr Suttonhttps://twitter.com/CovertShores is probably one of the better authorities on this. But because I can I'm going to add my two cents.
First the unconfirmed backstory. Well unconfirmed as when your dealing with Russians or the Ukrainians you can never tell what might be an information operation.
But based on the information available it appears that this Unmanned Surface Vehicle turned up close to the Russian naval base as Sevastopol. And it appears it was not invited and not expected. So probably not Russian. Also, it appears that the Russians decided to tow it out to sea and "explode" it. Which means they probably were of the opinion it was a bit of a threat.
So, to begin with this is a well-constructed craft.
It looks like this was done by a shipwright or someone who has been around boats and vessels for a while.
In short it looks pretty professional when you compare it to other low-profile vessels and unmanned surface craft built by other groups such as the Tamil Tigers, Huthi's and some of the Columbian Narco Subs.
No, whomever constructed this has access to machine shops, welders, marine engineers ect. Not a mom and pop shop or uncle in the backyard. Or a really really good mom and pop or unce.
Thats not surprising in itself as Ukraine is a seagoing nation and has many shipyards. So this is by no means beyond their capacity
Next lets talk about what I think are the major design features of this craft
It looks like they took about a 20 foot aluminum or steel small outboard boat. They then cut out everything but the hull and stripped it to the bones
Next they configured a cradle to sit in the boat to accommodate the warhead from some type of missile.
After that they fitted what looks like jet ski engines to the stern. As well as gas tanks and batteries to balance out the weight of the warhead which is located in the stern.
Then they installed the Communications system. I think this likely is some type of SATCOM antenna, maybe a combination UHF for LOS. This appears to be located in the stern area.
Then they mounted the Warhead into the internal cradle. Then they installed the warhead. Almost certainly in a safe mode. Welded everything back together. The three external semi circles are likely bracing to hold the boat together and keep the warhead in place. They may also have the effect of increasing shrapnel when and if this had gone off. They did leave an access port on the bow. This is likely where they armed it,
Next they drilled a small hole amidships and placed the Electro optical / Infared gps integrated device to enable a remote operator to "see" any possible target and likely take final arming instructions
I am guessing that the one thing that they forgot to do was to install an inertial navigation system INS. And instead relied on GPS enabled navigation. With perhaps manual operator steering. Why would an INS or something similar be important? Well in the event you can't get a gps signal or use SATCOM the INS would enable the craft to stay fairly on course. Why is that important. Well the Russians are (perhaps used to be) pretty good a jamming things. So counting on GPS or SATCOM would be questionable - especially when near a Russian Navy port. But with INS you could stay on course -ish. At least until you could get another fix. Realize these systems are not cheap. And the Ukrainians may have opted for positive control at all times to avoid damaging friendly or civilian ships. So it may have been an intentional omission.
Then they took that harness and hooked it up to the battery and comms package via the access port on the starboard side.
So how fast could this thing go...well rough estimate would be probably between 20 and 30 knots in a calm sea. However, I am guessing that actual transit speed might be 5-15 knots. Likely on the slower end. Remember, this craft is low profile for a reason. Stealth. At 20 to 20 knots, you are likely leaving a very very detectable wake even at night.
Remember the stealth aspect is a big part of the design of this craft. Many of you may never have stood watch at zero dark 30 on a ship. But even in perfect weather with no wind or waves and max illumination, this craft might look like a dolphin, piece of wood or some other marine animal.
Also, due to its low profile your Radar is not going to much good. Also EO/IR may not be all that great depending on how much insulation was used around the engine. Which appears to be a jet ski engine that does not run as hot as others.
I would guess that even with a super alert watch whom has been caffeinated and full of nicotine, its going to be hard to see this.
And remember the target appears to be ships in homeport. Tied up to the pier. Probably not going to have a bunch of people staring at the water. Well perhaps now...
For the warhead, guessing a missile warhead, maybe 100-150 pounds. Anymore and the boat won't handle it. I say warhead, as it is probably much easier to jury rig a warhead then to go and create your own explosive package and really improvise it. Safer probably to. If I had my choice would choose and Anti Ship Cruise Missile (ASCM) Warhead as well its engineer
So here is my vignette on how this was employed after probably some basic trials.
Following completion of basic sea trials and testing this craft was delivered to some section of the Ukrainian Navy. Once judged combat ready the Ukrainian Naval Staff developed targets that would be suitable for this craft. High on this list was likely Russian Navy ships in the port of Sevastopol. A successful attack would put more stress on an already nervous Russian Navy following attacks on Airbases and the HQ in previous weeks. An unsuccessful but detected craft would do the same minus the damage.
When the timing was right (Wind Weather targeting) a mothership/boat likely towed the craft some ways out to sea in the direction of the attack. This probably happened at dusk or night. Final preparations were made, checks undertaken, comms established, and initial arming of the warhead undertaken. When everything was green or mostly, so the Ukrainians activated the quick disconnect and let the craft head in its planed direction likely at a fairly slow rate of speed - say 5-15 knots.
From there it proceeded to target...until it didn't a number of things could have happened. My guess is a loss of comms, Perhaps the linkage between SATCOM / GPS and the control boards failed. Engine failure, battery failure...or just running out of gas due to unexpected sea state.
So it would appear that this was a failure. But not really.
Now there is an additional capability that the Russians have to guard against. And guarding against this capability is going to be difficult.
The Russians will have to either increases resources towards guarding naval assets in port, put them to sea or move them.
All upset the operational and tactical plans that the Russians might have.
Finally, you can bet somewhere there are a bunch of Staff officers and Engineers in the Ukrainian Navy pouring over whatever data they have. Developing solutions to issues and preparing to try again,
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