My thoughts at the time were that if the Russians were able to run over Ukraine quickly the outcome might be temporally good for Russia, but that long term the outlook was not so good.
That led me to what happens when the Russians face a CI slog. I had honestly not considered that the war would remain, with some interesting exceptions a conventional war for over 200 days.
Why, well Ukraine of 2022 is not the Ukraine of the 2010's. In particular their military is much more westernized but with all the sneakiness of Russian strategic thought.
In short, Ukraine military has a little bit of the best of both schools. In my mind's eye, even if the Russians had had a three-day success, they would have faced a situation similar but much worse than what U.S forces faced in Iraq.
Counter insurgency, but with a population determined to fight back and whom had not been under sanctions and led by a dictator.
That led me to what happens when the Russians face a CI slog. I had honestly not considered that the war would remain, with some interesting exceptions a conventional war for over 200 days.
In short, my assumptions were wrong in terms of how the nature of the conflict would flesh out.
However, I never thought that the Russian Army with the limited number of forces it chose to employ would be successful.
Which led me to think what happens when things start going sideways for the Russians.
In talking to a co-worker I simplified it to a bumper sticker. Which I generally refrain from as it tries to make very complex situations simple. But here it is.
"This ends in a bright flash of light or Putin and co taking a one way trip to the woodshed or sanatorium"
Let me unpack the above statement with caveats ect. Putin maintains his control of the Russian government by allowing the Oligarchs and members of the Government, Military and Security services to grift and steal.
A certain amount is ok, more and it's not ok. He also has on payroll huge portions of the Russian population, who essentially earn their paychecks either directly from the Russian Federation or from those employed by the Russian Federation. And going against the party line is not encouraged. It means jail at the low level - and Russian jails are not nice places or death by poison or other mysterious way at the high level.
Russia's huge resource wealth funds this. And not just oil. So that is one part. And the oligarchs don't mind this arrangement as it keeps them wealthy. The government employees don't mind as it keeps the paycheck coming and gives them some status
So, what about the "regular" Russians.
In my opinion there are really not that many regular Russians. Pretty much most Russians are tied to the above income streams somehow. Maybe by 2 or 3 degrees of separation. And they for the most part get by.
Russians in general have been fed a steady stream of misinformation.
Which they don't really seem to mind, as long as it does not impact the paycheck.
And whatever Putin does makes Russia Great Again or close to great again or perceived as almost great again
The Russian Military doesn't really care much either as long as they have their status, grift and paycheck. Remember it's a conscript army at the low levels. Majors and above with a few NCO's are the professionals. Below that its conscripts whom are generally from poor areas whom could not get out of being conscripted (think Northerners avoiding draft in the U.S Civil War or university deferments in Vietnam). To steal a PC term I rather despise, the average Russian Soldier has no agency. In short no one cares about him. Literally meat for the grinder and replaceable. No so for the Majors and above.
Here is the problem.
It boils down to resource flows into Russia, degraded oil outflows, legitimacy loss and prestige loss
Senator John McCain once said Russia is not a country it's a gas station with nuclear weapons - or something to that effect.
I think he was partially incorrect. More correctly Russia is an amalgamation of oils derrick's with nuclear weapons.
What's the difference between those. An oil derrick does not have storage, a Gas station does.
Simply put, Russia must pump its oil as it has very little storage. This means when people stop buying oil there is no place to put it. Except on ships. And there are not enough of those afloat to handle Russian export volumes. And it will take years, billions of dollars and external expertise to built pipelines to the east vice west.
Further, the oil industry is very capital and tech intensive.
Like airplanes, replacement parts and knowledge are needed to keep it operational.
Access to both has been largely cut off or has dwindled. This means because of the decisions of Putin the resource wealth that funds many Russians is slowly being cut off.
So, the difficulties that the Russian Army has been having have been so far easy to paper over.
Remember, no one cries much over the death of a Russian Conscript from the poor far easter provinces. This is not by accident it is by design. You don't see many troops from Moscow or the Cities in Ukraine. Ever wonder why?
Maybe his mother and family, but even then, the death benefit paid softens that blow. And its a good bit of money for a poor family in Siberia.
That along with the knowledge the soldier died " protecting mother Russia and ethnic Russians against Fascism " THIS IS FALSE...but unfortunately what many Russian have been force fed.
That appears to be not the case anymore. Bits and pieces of the reality of the Russian situation in Ukraine are reaching the Russian population. In some ways it reminds me of the Iraqi minister of foreign affairs
In essence the prestige and legitimacy of one the major institutions in Russia - the Armed services - has been or will be severely damaged. by what is happening in Ukraine. That bell will be very hard to un ring.
I could argue the failure - so far - of the Russian military was not so bad. Until about a week ago. When the Russians got snookered and hit hard. Well planned by the Ukrainians by the way. Fun to see Maskrova used against the Russians!
The full-on retreat right now makes things very very dangerous.
Why? The Russian military and security services are essentially the guarantor of the Russian regime. They are the savior of mother Russia going back to Napoleonic times.
Feared but respected. It is a key block of the Russian regime. Its failure is not an option.
If the Russian Army is totally defeated there might be a temptation by either Putin or his advisors to do something really stupid to salvage its position.
"That is the this will end in a bright flash". The flash being a tactical nuclear weapon going off somewhere in Ukraine - probably the east.
To send a very stern and convincing message that games stop now.
You have had your fun Ukraine, but nothing further.
While doing this would further make Russia a pariah.
From the Putin and regime point of view it is probably a better option that not being in control.
And it would send a firm message that the Russian Army is to be feared and respected.
"Or a Putin and co taking a one way trip to the woodshed or sanatorium" In this situation, the oligarchs and others senior in power essentially decide to execute a coup de tat on Putin and his close associates.
Or perhaps Putin is sent to hospital while his inner circle and security officials mysteriously disappear, fall out of windows, are put on trial or killed
So, I think that Ukraine and the west should be careful how hard of a corner that Russia is pushed into.
This is not to say I do not enjoy reading of Russian retreats and Russia becoming the largest arms exporter to Ukraine.
Just to be careful when cornering a rabid animal with sharp claws.
It would be wise in short to have an exit strategy.
Because I do not believe that anyone wants to see a bright flash of the easter horizon of Ukraine.
I also do not think that the Putin and his regime can survive as currently structured.
The disinformation cap that the Russian government has had on Russia appears to be failing.
Even on state supported channels.
While it is likely that the true losses are being concealed it is impossible to conceal them all. Especially as Generals and Colonels have been dying and being captured.
When the band aid of disinformation is ripped off, its is going to shock many Russians.
Full disclosure here I happen to have at one time been married into a ethnic Russian family. Divorced thankfully :) It's a bit interesting observing their behavior. As for most of the time I have known them (last 20 years) they identified as Russians from Ukraine. It has been interesting to see a change to Ukrainians who speak Russian since about February.
They are shocked, shocked that the Russian people have allowed this attack on Ukraine to continue.
Its then I remind them that Russians don't really have a choice. Because they have implicitly handed the keys of Russia to Putin for better or worse. In return for prosperity, security, and respect.
And that I am not shocked by the Russian behavior at all. After all I had to deal with it during my divorce
What will happen when those people find out that devil's bargain is not being honored.
And how fearful the Russian regime is of that fact being revealed.
More importantly if there are enough well placed Oligarchs, security services and Military to remove Putin and his circle from the equation take the L in Ukraine and begin to mend things.
Well that will determine if :
"This ends in a bright flash of light or Putin taking a one way trip the woodshed or sanatorium"
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